Why Used-Car Prices Are Dropping in Germany Right Now

We analysed 100,000+ listings to uncover the market forces reshaping used-car valuations across Europe.

Something significant is happening in the German used-car market. After two years of historically elevated prices driven by supply shocks and semiconductor shortages, values are now falling across virtually every segment. If you've been waiting to buy — the window is opening. If you're a dealer holding inventory, it's time to pay close attention.

We ran an analysis of 112,000 active listings on mobile.de between October 2025 and January 2026, overlaid with historical transaction data from the DAT (Deutsche Automobil Treuhand). Here's what the data shows.

The Numbers

• Average used-car asking price fell 8.3% YoY in Q4 2025, the largest quarterly decline since 2013.
• The 1–3 year old segment (nearly-new) dropped the most: –12.1% vs. Q4 2024.
• Petrol vehicles aged 3–7 years saw the smallest decline: –4.8%.
• Pure battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) from 2021–2023 fell 19.4% — the steepest drop in any category.
• Diesel vehicles in the 100,000–150,000 km range have stabilised, dropping just 2.1%.

Factor 1: The EV Correction

The single largest driver of the overall price decline is the collapse of used BEV values. Cars that were sold new at inflated prices during the 2021–2023 EV boom — when government incentives and supply constraints kept prices high — are now flooding the secondary market as lease cycles mature.

A 2022 Tesla Model 3 Long Range that once fetched €48,000 used is now listed at an average of €31,200 on mobile.de — a 35% fall in residual value in under three years. With Chinese BEV brands now offering competitive new vehicles at lower price points, the residual value of older BEVs has been structurally repriced downward.

"The BEV residual value correction was inevitable. The market over-priced uncertainty during the transition period. Now that buyers have more options, balance is being restored."

— Prof. Dr. Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, Center for Automotive Research (CAR), Duisburg

Factor 2: Supply Chain Normalisation

From 2021 to 2023, the global semiconductor shortage choked new-car production. Waiting times of 12–18 months for new vehicles pushed buyers into the used market, inflating prices there too. By Q3 2025, new-car delivery times had returned to pre-pandemic levels across most brands, significantly reducing demand pressure on used vehicles.

The Volkswagen Group, which alone accounts for roughly 30% of the German new-car market, reported production volumes in 2025 that were 18% higher than 2023. More new cars = less scarcity premium on used ones.

Factor 3: Economic Headwinds

Germany's GDP grew by just 0.4% in 2025, following a mild contraction in 2024. Disposable income growth has been eroded by sticky inflation in energy and food, and consumer confidence as measured by the GfK index remained below its long-term average for most of the year. When household budgets are under pressure, big-ticket purchases like cars get delayed or downsized.

What This Means for Buyers

Buyers are in the strongest position in a decade. The combination of falling prices, high inventory, and AI tools that surface true market value means you can negotiate confidently and avoid overpaying.

• Target the 2–4 year old petrol segment: prices are declining but vehicles are still modern and well-optioned.
• Approach BEV listings with caution unless the price already reflects further depreciation — battery degradation data is critical.
• Use a price history tool (like Carspecto) to see if a listing has been sitting unsold and at what previous prices — extended time-on-market is your best negotiation leverage.
• Avoid over-mileage diesels unless buying specifically for low-cost motoring — resale in 2–3 years will be challenging.

What This Means for Dealers

Holding inventory in a declining market is expensive. Vehicles aged more than 90 days on your lot are now a liability, not an asset. Dealers who reprice dynamically — using live market data rather than gut feel — are significantly outperforming those who don't.

Outlook: Q1–Q2 2026

Our model projects a further 3–5% decline in average asking prices through Q2 2026, stabilising as demand from first-time buyers and fleet renewal picks up in spring. The BEV segment will continue to face headwinds until battery cost parity with ICE vehicles is reached at the new-car level — a threshold most analysts peg at 2027–2028.

For anyone considering a purchase, the next eight weeks represent an excellent buying window. For sellers, pricing precisely at or slightly below the moving market average will significantly reduce time-on-market compared to holding firm.